Shipping volumes predicted to be flat, says new report

Shipping volumes in the short term are predicted to be relatively flat through December with any increases well below those of the corresponding period in 2010, according to a report by Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.

The gloomy forecast in the Global Port Tracker: North Europe Trade Outlook report warns that freight rates will remain under pressure in 2012 unless a sizeable part of capacity is withdrawn from the market.

The Global Port Tracker: North Europe Trade Outlook provides a six-month projection plus an additional two quarter forecast of inbound and outbound container movements in TEUs for the region’s six major container ports – le Havre, Antwerp, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Bremen/Bremerhaven and Hamburg.

Total incoming volumes are forecast to post gains over prior year volumes, with double-digit percentage gains projected between October and December. Total loaded incoming volume is projected to increase 11.8 per cent in 2011 to 16.98 million TEUS. On the flip side the total handled outgoing volume in 2011 is anticipated to grow by 7.4 per cent to 16.86 million TEUs.

ISL spokesman Sönke Maatsch said: “During the past two years, the North Range ports have recovered from the crisis, and container traffic in the second quarter of 2011 was higher than in the previous record year 2008. Compared with last year, container traffic grew by 8.6 per cent in the second quarter. Even though we expect growth to slow down during the second half of the year, the annual volumes will without doubt exceed those of 2008.”

The Global Port Tracker: North Europe Trade Outlook report noted that the Port of Hamburg continues to struggle to reach its 2008 heights.

The total loaded incoming volume is projected to increase by 13.3 per cent to 4.0 million TEUs in 2011, while the total handled volume is anticipated to increase by 12.5 per cent, to 8.89 million TEUs still short of the magic 10 million target.

Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates said: “Looking forward to 2012 we expect growth to drop off sharply, much as it has done in North America. This comes at a time when new capacity comes on stream. We again caution that freight rates will remain under pressure unless a sizeable part of capacity is withdrawn from the market. Back to basic economics of supply and demand.”

He added: “We are becoming less and less optimistic about 2012”. (IFW)

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