Imports grew by three times the exports in 2010

The predictable result of import growth in 2010, which advanced triple the exports should not be repeated this year, the assessment of experts. For GDP data, foreign purchases of the country surged 36.2% in the year, cool result of exports, which rose only 11.5%. The external sector, in the final calculation, eventually contribute to a negative 2.8 percentage points in economic growth this year.

"This was expected since the beginning of last year. But for 2011, on the contrary, it is expected that exports will grow more than imports," says the chairman of the Foreign Trade Association (AEB), José Augusto de Castro. He points out that no reversal tends to present such a large margin of difference between buying and selling, but it will be a "more realistic".

With favorable exchange rate and domestic demand after the heated brake 2009, Brazil imported mainly communication equipment, electronic and electrical steel products, automotive, chemical and oil products. According to Castro, the containment measures taken by the government to demand the end of 2010 are already beginning to bear fruit: "In January and February exports grew faster than imports for 2011 and we anticipate a surplus of U.S. $ 26 billion, more than loose the $ 20 billion in 2010. The only concern is with the global behavior, now that instability in North Africa and Middle East. "

Economist Lia Vals, Getulio Vargas Foundation, draws attention to the fact that the GDP data are calculated in real, which generates difference in valuation. In dollars, she says, the increase of imports was quite large, 42%, but exports were also strong increase of 32%. The gap stood at 10 percentage points, not nearly 25 points in reais. "The increase in imports comes to be positive for some industries, which reduce the cost of capital, which leads to increased competitiveness," she says, noting that Brazil has adopted safeguard measures with commercial success.

The coordinator of IBGE's National Accounts, Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, was evasive when evaluating the effects of currency appreciation in GDP. "To judge whether or not it is beneficial, we would need more analysis and information. We can not classify as good or as bad," he says.

The accounts of exports and imports in GDP is different from that achieved for the development of the trade balance. In GDP, goods and services entering and changes percentages relate to the volume. In the goods trade balance inside only and registration is on values, with great influence on prices. (Source: O Estado de S.Paulo)

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