US box traffic predicted to stay bullish post-Christmas peak

Q4 may be slightly weaker, but cargo is still coming through despite an early peak season
US container traffic is expected to post strong year-on-year growth for the rest of this year, even though retailers have already stocked up for Christmas.

Port Tracker, a report produced by Hackett Associates for the National Retail Federation (NRF), predicts that October US import volumes will be 11% up on the same month last year, and there should continue to be “strong year-over-year growth, even as seasonal levels wind down through the remainder of 2010”.
The NRF’s VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold, said: “Cargo is still coming through, but retailers are mostly stocked up for the holiday season.

“Retailers aren’t going to say the recession is behind them until their customers tell them it is, but we are hoping to see some sustainable economic growth over the next several weeks. The goal is that inventory levels will match sales as closely as possible.”

However, compared with the rest of the year, the fourth quarter might be slightly weaker than normal.

The report found that while October is typically the busiest month of the year – as retailers rush to fill shelves with merchandise for the holiday season – that peak shifted to August this year.

This was the result of a backlog in cargo after ocean carriers were slow to replace vessels taken out of service during the recession, and because retailers brought merchandise in early to avoid the risk of delays in the autumn.

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said: “Trade, particularly imports, is a strong indicator that recovery is sustainable.

“We continue to expect the fourth quarter to be seasonally weak – perhaps slightly more so than in the past because the peak has shifted to an earlier month – but it will, nonetheless, have been a good year.”

During August, the latest month for which figures are available, US ports handled 1.42 million teu, which was 3% up on July and 23% up year-on-year.

It was the ninth consecutive month to show a year-on-year improvement after December 2009 broke a 28-month streak of year-on-year decline.

September is estimated at 1.37 million teu, 20% up on last year. (source: IFW)

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